LONDON - After this war, the region of West Asia will not be as it was before, and the world will not be the same as it was. The American presence in the region will change. The status of American bases will change radically. The global economic situation and American dominance over it will be greatly affected. The American economy and the dominance of the petrodollar will weaken significantly.

America depends on the petrodollar. What does the petrodollar mean? It means that America controls the oil market through its control of oil sources and oil shipping routes, and it imposes payment in dollars, meaning that oil is priced in U.S. dollars. This makes the entire world need the dollar. And this makes the American economy very strong, even if it has very high debt, because the demand for the dollar remains strong. That is the secret of the power of the petrodollar.

With America’s weakening ability to protect its allies, and the proven failure of American radars, platforms, and defense systems; if all of these things are shown to have failed to repel attacks from a country like Iran, it will shake confidence. This will encourage countries to turn more boldly toward China for security and protection, since China is actually a powerful country and does not have a record of aggression. China will appear as a more reliable partner for protection. Furthermore, when these countries conduct transactions outside the SWIFT system and the petrodollar system, American dominance will weaken. This will change the region.

Trump now wants to exit this war quickly. He was misled and made miscalculations about Iran’s way of thinking, the limits of its power, its influence, and the structure of Iranian society. He wants to end this war before it reaches results that significantly affect American dominance and its economic position. 

Trump will claim victory, as he is doing now, saying that everything was destroyed: Iran’s navy, its missiles, its platforms, and even claiming that the first and second ranks of leadership were eliminated. He will be satisfied with that, and he may even accept Iran claiming victory as well. He says contradictory things and believes this can pass politically. For the same situation, he may present it as the best possible outcome and praise it greatly, or portray it as the worst and weakest possible outcome. And then the story ends.

But the story will not end with Iran, as this magnitude of aggression cannot be ignored. Iran demands a formal acknowledgment by the United Nations that an attack occurred, compensation for the attack, release of Iranian funds frozen in the United States, the lifting of sanctions and a system of shared regional security.

There can be no security for others if Iran itself has no security. There can be no exports for others if Iran is not allowed to export. Regional countries should enjoy security, independence, and freedom from American interests and the interests of the petrodollar in their dealings. If there is no security for Iranian imports and exports, then there will be no security for any other country's exports either.

Moreover, the situation may even escalate to Iran declaring control over the Strait of Hormuz. That would mean the end of the “strategic patience” that characterized Iranian policy. It means no one will be able to harass Iran, impose sanctions on it, or restrict its movement without facing a response. Whoever harasses Iran will be harassed in return. Whoever blocks its ships will see their ships blocked in areas Iran controls. Whoever imposes sanctions will face a direct response. These are initial matters, but they are extremely influential for the global economy, which will not return to what it was.